Indian stock markets are expected to open on a cautious note Monday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 reflecting softness in the Asian markets.
Despite a positive finish in US markets last week, driven by the Nasdaq’s best weekly gains in two months, India’s domestic indices closed with minor declines.
On Friday, the Sensex fell by 0.07%, ending at 79,486.32, while the Nifty 50 dropped 0.21% to settle at 24,148.20, impacted by selling pressure on heavyweight stocks.
This week, investors will be watching a blend of global and domestic cues. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain a key global focus, while on the domestic side, the final Q2 earnings reports and crucial macroeconomic data releases are set to draw attention.
Global factors such as US inflation data, bond yield trends, and crude oil prices could shape broader market sentiment. Volatility has been notable, with Nifty down approximately 8% from its September peak, as foreign fund outflows and a stronger US dollar continue to weigh on broader indices.
Last week, both Sensex and Nifty saw consolidation. Nifty fluctuated within a range, opening at 24,315.75 and closing at 24,148.20, while Sensex started at 79,713.14 and closed at 79,486.32. Bank Nifty experienced selling pressure as well, closing at 51,561.20 after reaching a weekly low of 50,865.45.
While the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve initially lifted global markets, Indian indices have faced challenges, with Nifty and Sensex marking their fifth loss in six weeks. Broader markets showed mixed results, with small caps declining 2% while mid-caps remained steady.
In the week ahead, investor focus will shift to India’s macroeconomic indicators and the wrap-up of Q2 earnings season.
Key data, including industrial production (IIP) and inflation figures, are scheduled for release, offering insights into domestic economic trends.
Several initial public offerings (IPOs) are planned, and corporate actions like ex-dividend dates for prominent stocks could influence interest in select market areas.
Global Cues
Asian markets opened the week on a weaker note, reacting to China’s October inflation data, which came in lower than expected. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.39%, with the Topix remaining flat.
South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq fell by 1.32% and 2.1%, respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures also indicated a subdued start.
US markets closed on a high note last Friday, posting their largest weekly gain in a year. The Dow Jones added 259.65 points, closing at 43,988.99, while the S&P 500 rose by 22.44 points to reach 5,995.54.
The Nasdaq Composite saw a smaller gain of 17.32 points, closing at 19,286.78. Over the week, the S&P 500 increased by 4.66%, the Nasdaq surged by 5.74%, and the Dow advanced by 4.61%.
Stocks like Trump Media saw a significant rise of over 15%, Tesla rallied more than 8%, and Salesforce gained 3.59%. In contrast, Chinese firms listed in the US faced sell-offs, with JD.com falling 6.99% and Alibaba dropping 5.94%.
The recent Republican majority, along with the Fed’s anticipated 25 bps rate cut, reduced some political uncertainty, which could support further momentum in the US markets.
Key upcoming global data includes the US inflation report on November 13, expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.
China’s economic stimulus developments, US bond yields, and the dollar index are crucial for emerging markets, including India, especially as both have risen following the US election results.
Other significant economic data this week includes:
- US core CPI (Oct)
- US initial jobless claims
- US retail sales (MoM) (Oct)
- US PPI (MoM) (Oct)
- UK GDP (Q3)
- China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
Gift Nifty
Currently, Gift Nifty is trading around the 24,123 mark at 8:45 am IST, about 100 points lower than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a potentially negative opening for Indian markets.
Previous Week Market Analysis
The Indian stock market continued its consolidation phase, shedding over half a percent as volatility persisted amid global events. The Nifty 50 opened the week at 24,315.75 and closed at 24,148.20, marking a weekly high of 24,537 and a low of 23,816.15.
Sensex opened at 79,713.14 and settled at 79,486.32, reaching a high of 80,569.73 and a low of 78,232.60.
Similarly, Bank Nifty opened at 51,764.50 and closed at 51,561.20, recording a high of 52,493.95 and a low of 50,865.45.
The market was under pressure from global factors, including the U.S. Presidential election results and a subsequent Federal Reserve rate cut of 25 basis points, which initially sparked optimism in global markets.
This rally lost steam as concerns over valuations, mixed corporate earnings, and foreign fund outflows weighed on sentiment. Additionally, the Nifty and Sensex recorded their fifth weekly loss in six weeks, with the Nifty now down approximately 8% from its record high reached on September 27.
Broader indices also showed mixed performance, as small-cap stocks declined by 2%, while mid-caps managed to stay stable.
The IT sector emerged as a standout performer, gaining around 4% due to positive cues from the Fed’s rate cut and anticipated economic growth under Trump’s policies, which could spur U.S. corporate spending. However, other sectors, including realty, energy, and FMCG, faced significant losses.
Volatility persisted, as reflected in the India VIX dropping 9.01%, signaling a cautious outlook. Additionally, the Indian rupee fell to a record low against the U.S. dollar, logging its worst weekly performance in five months, driven by sustained foreign outflows and a strong dollar outlook.
With investors turning cautious due to expected domestic GDP slowdown, Q2 earnings reports, and global triggers, market sentiment remains subdued heading into the new week.
Upcoming Week Highlights
The market’s attention is shifting back to domestic factors, particularly the release of macroeconomic data and the conclusion of Q2 earnings season.
The recent uptick in India’s manufacturing sector offers a favorable outlook, with expectations of a stronger fiscal year-end push due to government spending timed around the upcoming general elections.
Analysts anticipate that the holiday-driven demand in Q3 will contribute to improved corporate earnings for H2FY25, possibly helping the market find support levels in the near term.
Key economic indicators will also be released this week, with industrial production (IIP) and retail inflation data set for November 12, followed by wholesale inflation figures on November 14.
Analysts project a short-term inflation rise along with an uptick in industrial output, factors that will be closely monitored for their potential market impact.
The primary market will witness three new IPOs, including Zinka Logistics Solution Limited (BlackBuck), which opens for subscription, and Niva Bupa Health Insurance, which will close on November 11.
Four major listings are scheduled on BSE and NSE this week, including Sagility India, Swiggy Ltd, ACME Solar Holdings, and Niva Bupa Health Insurance.
In corporate actions, major stocks such as Oil India, Power Grid Corporation, RITES, Indraprastha Gas Ltd, and IRCTC will trade ex-dividend starting Monday, November 11. Additionally, some shares will trade ex-bonus and ex-split, potentially influencing stock performance for these entities.
Upcoming Q2 Results
The Q2 earnings season continues this week, with multiple Nifty 50 and other listed companies on the NSE and BSE scheduled to report quarterly results for FY 2024-25.
Set for release between Monday, November 11, and Saturday, November 16, these reports will shed light on sector performance and market trends.
Companies to watch include Hindalco Industries, ONGC, Britannia Industries, Hero MotoCorp, HAL, Vodafone Idea, Bharat Dynamics, NMDC, FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa), Devyani International, and Bank of India.
November 11 (Monday)
- Hindalco Industries, ONGC, Britannia Industries
- Additional companies: Bank of India, Devyani International, Elgi Equipments, GNFC, Suprapjt Engineering, Jubilant FoodWorks, Balrampur Chini Mills, BEML, Hindustan Copper, Saksoft, The Ramco Cements, Triveni Turbine, TVS Supply Chain Solutions, Bajaj Consumer, National Fertilizers, and NMDC
November 12 (Tuesday)
- Minda Corporation, NMDC Steel, Polyplex Corporation, Uno Minda, BSE, GSFC, Suven Pharma, Natco Pharma, Bombay Dyeing, Greaves Cotton, Kirloskar Oil, Zydus Lifesciences, Ashoka Buildcon, FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa), General Insurance, Gokaldas Exports, Gujarat Industries Power, Hikal, Jyothy Labs, and KNR Construction
November 13 (Wednesday)
- Deepak Nitrite, Happiest Minds, NBCC, Garden Reach Shipbuilders, IFCI, PI Industries, Alkem Laboratories, Brigade Enterprises, Dilip Buildcon, Fineotex Chemicals, Mishra Dhatu Nigam, Prism Johnson, RCFL, Shilpa Medicare, Varroc Engineering, Vodafone Idea, Zaggle Prepaid, Apollo Tyres, Godrej Industries, Borosil, Sun TV Network, Torrent Power, and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)
November 14 (Thursday)
- Grasim Industries and Hero MotoCorp
- Additional companies: Honasa Consumer, Ipca Laboratories, JTEKT India, Sanghvi Movers, Avanti Feeds, Crompton Greaves Consumer, EID Parry, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Bharat Dynamics, Bharat Forge, and Schneider Electric
Technical Outlook for Nifty
Note – This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. MarketScope Daily does not provide any investment recommendations. Readers are encouraged to conduct independent research or consult a professional advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not indicate future results.
Nifty closed the week at 24,148, trading slightly below key short-term moving averages. This positioning indicates possible resistance levels ahead.
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA): The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day SMAs are positioned above the closing level at 24,208, 24,269, and 24,486 respectively, reflecting downward pressure with Nifty currently below these averages. The 50-day SMA at 25,012 represents a significant resistance level for any potential upward move.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): With a daily RSI of 39.58, a bearish undertone persists. RSI levels below 40 often suggest weakened market momentum, though Nifty is nearing oversold territory, which may limit further downside in the short term.
- Monthly Pivots:
- Pivot (P): 24,728
- Support Levels: S1 at 23,550 and S2 at 22,895
- Resistance Levels: R1 at 25,384 and R2 at 26,562
November’s pivot level at 24,728 highlights a crucial threshold for the Nifty to regain positive momentum. Support lies at 23,550, providing potential downside protection, while resistance near 25,384 (R1) aligns with the 50-day SMA, posing a notable barrier for short-term rallies.
Technical Outlook for Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty closed at 51,561, trading within a narrow range around several key short-term and intermediate moving averages. This positioning suggests a mixed outlook with limited directional momentum.
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA): Bank Nifty is currently below the 5-day SMA at 51,843 and the 10-day SMA at 51,775, reflecting immediate short-term resistance. The 20-day SMA at 51,671 may provide a support zone. Concentrated resistance is evident around the 51,800-51,900 range, as both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs (51,944 and 51,741 respectively) indicate a key hurdle for upward movement.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): With an RSI of 48.24, Bank Nifty hovers near the neutral 50 mark, suggesting balanced momentum and a range-bound outlook with no clear directional bias.
- Monthly Pivots:
- Pivot (P): 51,634
- Support Levels: S1 at 50,034 and S2 at 48,594
- Resistance Levels: R1 at 53,075 and R2 at 54,675
The monthly pivot at 51,634 aligns closely with current levels, serving as a key inflection point. A move above this pivot could encourage a test of resistance at 53,075. Conversely, a decline below 50,034 would likely indicate a shift toward a more bearish stance, with further support at 48,594.
Open Interest (OI) Data Analysis
Open interest (OI) in the derivatives market reveals significant support and resistance zones for Nifty in the coming sessions:
- Call Side OI – The highest OI on the call side is concentrated around the 24,500, 25,000, and 25,500 strike prices, suggesting potential resistance points where traders anticipate selling pressure. In detail:
- The 24,500 strike has significant OI, indicating initial resistance.
- The 25,000 and 25,500 levels show even higher OI, reinforcing these levels as major obstacles to any upside breakout.
- Put Side OI – The highest OI on the put side centers at the 23,000 strike, which acts as a critical support level as traders demonstrate confidence by buying protective puts here. Additional significant OI levels on the put side include:
- The 24,000 and 23,500 strikes, indicating secondary support zones that may offer stability if Nifty encounters downward pressure.
Disclaimer – The information in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. MarketScope Daily does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the content, and readers are advised to conduct their own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. MarketScope Daily is not SEBI-registered and does not offer investment advisory services.
